Fintech Stocks in 2026: The Rotation Into Infrastructure
Only 4 of 40 fintech stocks are in positive territory YTD through February 2026. The market is rewarding trading infrastructure and compliance software while punishing consumer fintech and BNPL. Here is the data, the thesis, and what it means for your portfolio.
The Scoreboard: 40 Stocks, 4 Winners
The 40-stock fintech universe tracked by Alpha Loop Capital has fallen an average of 13.7% year-to-date through February 25, 2026, sharply underperforming the S&P 500's modest +1.6% gain over the same period.
Only four names are in the green. Every single BNPL, neobanking, and consumer lending stock is deep in the red. The pattern is unmistakable -- and it tells a clear story about where the market sees value in financial technology heading into the rest of the year.
| Portfolio / Benchmark | YTD Return (Jan 1 - Feb 25, 2026) |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | **+1.6%** |
| Top 5 Best Ideas (equal-weight) | **-6.7%** |
| Full Fintech Universe (40-stock avg) | **-13.7%** |
Let us break down every sub-sector.
The Four Winners: Infrastructure Wins
The only fintech stocks in positive territory through late February 2026 share a common thread: they are financial infrastructure and plumbing businesses, not consumer-facing fintechs. They benefit from transaction volumes, regulatory complexity, and market volatility -- not consumer credit health.
| Ticker | Company | Dec 31, 2025 Close | Feb 25, 2026 Close | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **IBKR** | Interactive Brokers | $64.31 | $73.65 | **+14.5%** |
| **TW** | Tradeweb Markets | $107.54 | $120.75 | **+12.3%** |
| **DFIN** | Donnelley Financial | $46.69 | $49.60 | **+6.2%** |
| **GPN** | Global Payments | $77.40 | $77.94 | **+0.7%** |
Interactive Brokers (+14.5%) is the best performer in the entire 40-stock universe. IBKR benefits from elevated trading volumes and volatility -- when markets are choppy, active traders trade more, and IBKR earns on every transaction. The company's institutional-grade execution and low-cost structure have made it the broker of choice for professional and active retail traders alike.
Tradeweb Markets (+12.3%) has likewise gained from fixed-income trading activity. As interest rate uncertainty persists, bond market volumes surge, and Tradeweb operates the electronic marketplace where a large portion of those trades execute. It is a toll booth on the bond market.
Donnelley Financial (+6.2%) has quietly outperformed on the back of strong regulatory filing demand. When regulatory complexity increases, companies need more help preparing and distributing their SEC filings, prospectuses, and compliance documents. DFIN is the picks-and-shovels play on financial regulation.
Global Payments (+0.7%) is essentially flat, but in a sector down 14% on average, flat is a win. GPN has benefited from its acquisition integration narrative and aggressive cost-cutting program.
The thesis is straightforward: in a risk-off environment, the market rewards companies that benefit from complexity and activity, not consumer spending.
Payments and Processing: Even the Giants Are Struggling
| Ticker | Company | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 25, 2026 | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPN | Global Payments | $77.40 | $77.94 | +0.7% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments | $62.97 | $57.37 | -8.9% |
| V | Visa | $350.71 | $313.01 | -10.7% |
| MA | Mastercard | $570.88 | $509.85 | -10.7% |
| FI | Fiserv | $67.17 | $59.13 | -12.0% |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | $47.81 | $41.48 | -13.2% |
| RPAY | Repay Holdings | $3.65 | $2.99 | -18.1% |
| MQ | Marqeta | $4.75 | $3.86 | -18.7% |
| PYPL | PayPal | $58.38 | $47.32 | -18.9% |
| XYZ | Block Inc | $65.09 | $51.94 | -20.2% |
| TOST | Toast | $35.51 | $26.81 | -24.5% |
| FIS | FIS | $66.46 | $49.06 | -26.2% |
The payments sector is under broad pressure. Visa and Mastercard -- typically defensive blue-chips -- are both down nearly 11%, reflecting macro concerns about consumer spending deceleration. When Wall Street worries about the consumer, the companies that take a cut of every consumer transaction get hit.
PayPal's -18.9% decline stands out. The company fired CEO Alex Chriss in early February 2026 after a Q4 2025 earnings miss and decelerating branded checkout growth. The leadership vacuum adds uncertainty on top of fundamental concerns.
FIS is the sector's worst performer at -26.2%, continuing a multi-year underperformance streak. The merchant services spinoff and ongoing strategic repositioning have not convinced the market.
Toast (-24.5%) has pulled back sharply after a strong 2025, as restaurant industry spending shows signs of softening.
The takeaway: even high-quality payments businesses are getting hit. But there is a clear spectrum -- infrastructure-oriented names (GPN) are holding up far better than consumer-facing names (PayPal, Block, Toast).
Lending, BNPL, and Digital Banking: The Carnage Zone
| Ticker | Company | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 25, 2026 | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LC | LendingClub | $18.94 | $16.10 | -15.0% |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies | $26.18 | $19.29 | -26.3% |
| HOOD | Robinhood | $113.10 | $77.53 | -31.4% |
| UPST | Upstart | $43.73 | $28.44 | -35.0% |
| AFRM | Affirm | $74.43 | $47.98 | -35.5% |
This is the hardest-hit sub-sector, and it is not close.
Affirm (-35.5%) and Upstart (-35.0%) lead the selloff, erasing months of 2025 gains as the market reassesses credit risk in a slowing economy. Both companies are heavily exposed to consumer credit quality. When charge-off rates rise, their economics deteriorate -- and the market is pricing that in aggressively.
Robinhood has given back -31.4% after a spectacular 2025 run that saw shares peak near $154. The reversal reflects both a normalization from euphoric valuations and declining retail trading activity compared to the meme-stock peaks.
SoFi has shed -26.3% from its November 2025 high of roughly $33. Despite strong loan origination growth, the market is concerned about credit cycle exposure.
LendingClub at -15.0% is actually the relative outperformer among this troubled group, though still significantly negative.
The market's message is clear: consumer credit exposure is toxic in early 2026. Every company with meaningful lending, BNPL, or credit-dependent revenue is being punished.
Credit Analytics, RegTech, and Capital Markets Infrastructure
| Ticker | Company | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 25, 2026 | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBKR | Interactive Brokers | $64.31 | $73.65 | **+14.5%** |
| TW | Tradeweb Markets | $107.54 | $120.75 | **+12.3%** |
| DFIN | Donnelley Financial | $46.69 | $49.60 | **+6.2%** |
| MKTX | MarketAxess | $181.25 | $180.51 | -0.4% |
| NICE | NICE Ltd | $113.04 | $111.09 | -1.7% |
| CWAN | Clearwater Analytics | $24.12 | $23.50 | -2.6% |
| EFX | Equifax | $216.98 | $198.19 | -8.7% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | $223.69 | $195.82 | -12.5% |
| TRU | TransUnion | $85.75 | $74.24 | -13.4% |
| SSNC | SS&C Technologies | $87.42 | $72.87 | -16.6% |
| BR | Broadridge Financial | $223.17 | $177.28 | -20.6% |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corp | $1,690.62 | $1,301.19 | -23.0% |
This is where the bright spots live. All four positive stocks in the entire universe come from this sub-sector.
MarketAxess (-0.4%) is essentially flat. Like Tradeweb, it operates an electronic bond trading venue, but its slight underperformance relative to TW reflects its narrower focus on investment-grade credit (which has seen less volume growth than rates).
NICE (-1.7%) and Clearwater Analytics (-2.6%) show defensive characteristics -- both are software businesses selling into compliance and operations workflows that customers cannot easily cut.
On the negative side, FICO's -23.0% decline is notable. The credit-scoring giant faces competitive headwinds from the FHFA's decision to permit VantageScore 4.0 as an alternative for mortgage underwriting. After trading above $1,690 to end 2025, FICO has pulled back to $1,301 -- still an eye-watering multiple, but a significant correction.
Broadridge (-20.6%) has been hit by investor services spending cuts, while SS&C (-16.6%) continues to face pressure from the shift toward lower-cost fund administration alternatives.
The Rest: InsurTech, Crypto, and Misc Fintech
| Ticker | Company | Dec 31, 2025 | Feb 25, 2026 | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYO | Payoneer | $5.62 | $5.24 | -6.8% |
| EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | $76.11 | $71.01 | -6.7% |
| GDOT | Green Dot | $12.81 | $11.88 | -7.3% |
| HIPO | Hippo Holdings | $30.08 | $27.36 | -9.0% |
| OSCR | Oscar Health | $14.37 | $12.94 | -9.9% |
| FLYW | Flywire | $14.16 | $12.52 | -11.6% |
| ROOT | Root Inc | $72.23 | $61.09 | -15.4% |
| COIN | Coinbase | $226.14 | $183.94 | -18.7% |
| BILL | Bill Holdings | $54.54 | $43.21 | -20.8% |
| DAVE | Dave Inc | $221.41 | $172.41 | -22.1% |
| LMND | Lemonade | $71.18 | $51.85 | -27.2% |
InsurTech names are holding up better than expected: Hippo (-9.0%) and Oscar Health (-9.9%) are outperforming the fintech average. Insurance businesses are somewhat counter-cyclical -- premiums rise in inflationary environments, and underwriting discipline has improved.
Coinbase (-18.7%) has pulled back sharply from its July 2025 all-time high of $445, reflecting a crypto market cooldown. With Bitcoin and Ethereum both off their highs, trading-dependent revenue is under pressure.
Lemonade's -27.2% reversal is painful after a strong 2025 rally. The InsurTech story is still alive, but execution risk remains.
Bill Holdings at -20.8% continues to face SMB spending headwinds. Small business software spending is one of the first areas to get cut in a slowing economy.
What the Data Tells Us: The Infrastructure vs. Consumer Divide
The pattern across all 40 stocks is unmistakable. Let us summarize:
Best performers (full universe):
- IBKR (Interactive Brokers): +14.5%
- TW (Tradeweb): +12.3%
- DFIN (Donnelley Financial): +6.2%
- GPN (Global Payments): +0.7%
Worst performers (full universe):
- AFRM (Affirm): -35.5%
- UPST (Upstart): -35.0%
- HOOD (Robinhood): -31.4%
- LMND (Lemonade): -27.2%
- FIS (FIS): -26.2%
The market is pricing in a consumer credit deterioration cycle in 2026 while recognizing that financial infrastructure spending remains durable regardless of the macro backdrop.
The four positive stocks all benefit from transaction volumes or regulatory complexity rather than consumer credit health. Meanwhile, every BNPL, digital lending, and neobanking name is down at least 15%.
Investment Implications
1. Infrastructure Over Consumer
If the rotation thesis is correct, the playbook for fintech exposure in 2026 favors:
- Trading venues and brokers: IBKR, TW, MKTX
- Compliance and RegTech: NICE, CWAN, DFIN
- Essential payment infrastructure: GPN, FI
And it avoids:
- BNPL: AFRM, while innovative, is a levered bet on consumer credit
- Digital lending: UPST, LC, SOFI are all credit-cycle sensitive
- Consumer engagement: HOOD depends on retail trading volumes
2. Valuation Matters Again
After a 2025 where growth multiples expanded aggressively, the 2026 selloff is compressing valuations. Some of the best-performing names from 2025 (Robinhood, Upstart, Affirm) are now giving back 30-35% of those gains. The question is whether this is a buying opportunity or a return to reality.
For infrastructure names like IBKR and TW, the valuations remain reasonable relative to their earnings power and competitive moats. For consumer names, the answer depends entirely on your credit cycle thesis.
3. The Top 5 Best Ideas: Mixed Results
The equal-weighted Top 5 portfolio (NICE, FOUR, GPN, EFX, LC) has declined -6.7% YTD -- delivering 700 basis points of alpha over the broader fintech universe (-13.7%) but trailing the S&P 500 by approximately 830 basis points.
| Ticker | Company | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|
| GPN | Global Payments | **+0.7%** |
| NICE | NICE Ltd | **-1.7%** |
| EFX | Equifax | **-8.7%** |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments | **-8.9%** |
| LC | LendingClub | **-15.0%** |
The defensive positioning in GPN and NICE is working. The credit-exposed names (EFX and LC) are dragging performance. The portfolio construction lesson: even a concentrated best-ideas portfolio benefits from infrastructure ballast.
Track These Stocks on HedgeFundTrade.ai
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All price data sourced from Alpha Vantage (TIME_SERIES_DAILY and REALTIME_BULK_QUOTES APIs) as of market close February 25, 2026. December 31, 2025 closing prices reflect actual end-of-year settlement values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not investment advice.